After building millions of kilometers of roads, rails and pipelines, and perfecting technologies in high speed rail, water management and power generation, many health care industry participants are watching to see whether China will leverage its new infrastructure experience elsewhere in the world.

Industry participants will also benefit from the increasing globalization of investments in this market, with many of the world’s largest investors creating funds aimed specifically at the Asian market. Observers will also notice a growing level of outbound investment to places like Africa and Europe, though – for the time being – this is mainly isolated to investors from China, Singapore and Vietnam.

The global demand for healthcare services is increasing at an unprecedented rate, and the aging population is one of the most significant drivers of this increase. By 2050, the aging population (aged 60 or above) worldwide is expected to reach 2 billion, or 22.9 percent of the global population, up from the current 739 million or 10.9 percent of the global population. The challenge is twofold: firstly, the demand for healthcare is rising exponentially due to the rapid aging of the population. Secondly, nations lack skilled healthcare workers — a critical factor that is exacerbated by the aging of the healthcare workforce. As healthcare workers are retiring, there are not sufficient trained health professionals to replace those leaving the workforce. Although many countries are trying to tackle this problem by recruiting more people and retaining more aging healthcare professionals, such efforts are not sufficient to offset the decline in numbers. The level of concern regarding the aging workforce varies considerably from country to country, depending on the degree of the shortage.

Americas
As of March 2010, there were 7,029 certified geriatricians in the US; i.e. one geriatrician for every 2,699 Americans aged 75 or above. By 2030, this ratio is expected to drop to one geriatrician for every 5,549 Americans for the same age group. In 2008–09, out of the 470 geriatric medicine first-year fellowship training slots in the US, only 293 were filled. Of the132 geriatric psychiatry first-year fellowship training slots, only 56 were taken.4 The country also faced a shortage of over 400,000 nurses in 2009, according to the US Bureau of Health Professionals. By 2020, that number is expected to reach 1 million.  

Asia Pacific
China has only 20,000 qualified geriatric health workers to take care of its 167 million elderly. It needs another 10 million skilled health professionals. This will require China to adopt a Western model of senior care. Although the traditional approach in China emphasized family care, this changed with the one-baby policy and the growing nuclear families.

While there are significant differences in the extent of the shortage of practicing physicians across various countries, and numbers have improved slightly in some cases over the past decade, the level required still falls short of WHO recommendations. Even in OECD countries, the average is only 3.2 physicians per 1,000 people. This figure presents the regional variations in the density of practicing physicians in some OECD countries.

Global healthcare systems are facing more complex challenges than ever. SZ&W is committed to providing long term support to our clients as they tackle these challenges and seek to transform the way that healthcare is provided.